Introduction
On April 10th 2022, the birthplace of modern democracy went to the polls for its first round (premier tour) to elect the next president. France is a semi-presidential democracy with the president as central power and government headed by the prime minister. Both the president and the prime minister report to the National Assembly. The French president is elected for a five year term through a two-round system. If in the first round a candidate gets over 50% of the votes, they win the election. If not , the top two with the most votes go for a second ballot in the second round (deuxième tour). Of the twelve candidates, only the top two with the highest votes had made it to the second round after all failed to get 50% plus votes. The current president Emmanuel Macron had scored 27.6% in the first round, while his female counterpart, Marine Le Pen scooped 23.4%. On 24th April, the two will meet in the second round of voting.
A New Electoral Landscape for Zambia
Zambia adopted the two-round system prior to the 2016 general elections. Previously, the country had a first-past-the-post electoral system (FP TP). Since the adoption of the two-round system, Zambia has experienced an increase of 50% plus 1 vote for the top candidate and a decrease in percentage of the second top candidate. The gap between the top two candidates gets wider with every election held. For instance, in 2016, Patriotic Front’s Edgar Lungu got 50.35% of the votes while his main opponent, Hakainde Hichilema of the United Party for National Development had 47.63% and everyone else barely reached 1% of the valid votes cast. In the 2021 general elections, Haikainde Hichilema won with 59.02% while his closest rival, Edgar Lungu had 38.71% and the rest fell below 1% of total votes. Based on such a pattern, second round voting is highly unlikely. But in the circumstance that it occurs, what lessons can Zambia learn from the French Republic with regards to the two-round system?
France's Electoral Journey
The French Republic has always gone through the second round since the introduction of the two-round system in 1965, with all eleven (11) elections being determined in the second round. Interestingly, the same top two candidates (president Emmanuel Macron and Marine Le Pen) advanced to the second round of polling in 2017 and 2022. For the purpose of this piece, I use the french term, déjà vu to refer to this situation. Both candidates have come out strong in their final campaigns ahead of the second round (deuxième tour). President Macron, a centrist and investment banker is focusing on climate change to capture the young voters in what he calls the “battle of the century”. The power of the young electorate is something Zambia’s current president harnessed by engaging and connecting with them on social media prior to the 2021 general elections. The actualisation of the promises made to the young people during this period remain beyond the scope of this article for both the French Republic and the Republic of Zambia.
The decision by the French voters in the 24th April second round of polling is vital not just to the republic. It comes with a huge bearing not only on France but Europe as a whole. France is Europe's third largest economy after Germany and the United Kingdom and tops the soft power league. This means that France has so much regional and global influence both politically and economically. It has the ability to encourage collaboration and build networks as well as relationships between and among countries. In the second round with only two candidates, the French people within the country and expats have a second chance to rethink their initial decisions made in the first round.
According to a poll by Ipsos-Sopra Steria, President Macron is seen to win the election with 56% of the vote ahead of his far right opponent, Marine Le Pen. However, what we know from Zambia’s 2021 general elections is this- public opinion polling is merely a kind of ‘informal system of direct democracy’. President Macron understands this and has warned, despite leading the polls that, ‘nothing is decided’. And the two rivals have continued to urge the electorate to vote on 24th April.
The Weight of the Second Round
The two-round system has brought the two candidates this far. But what is it good for anyway? Proponents of the 50% plus 1 electoral system argue that it gives a second chance to the electorate if they sway to a different candidate. The problem with this is the higher chance of a lower voter turnout in the second round. Meanwhile, critics argue that the second ballot is costly as it requires more ballot papers, staff and campaign resources to carry out the election process. Ironically, it is the most common system in lower income countries and some French colonies. In the SADC region for instance, more than 50% of the countries have adopted the two-round system (second ballot, runoff voting).
The second ballot is also favoured because it encourages bargains and trade-offs. A candidate that had lesser votes may sway voters on their side in the second round of voting. This is why President Macron has continued his campaign despite the first round victory and lead in opinion polls. And Marine Le Pen understands that there is an equal chance for her to lead the second round of voting. The current French and Zambia’s electoral system lessens the problem of vote splitting among similar parties and is also suitable for countries with high illiteracy levels. The two-round system is criticised for producing disproportional results of western democracies. Despite the two-round system being highly condemned, the system continues to be adopted by countries globally and today it is the most practised on earth.
Zambia's Electoral Future
As the two-round system keeps on gaining worldwide adoption, the French Republic deserves a mention in the second ballot’s popularity. After Zambia introduced the two-round system ahead of the 2016 general elections, an agenda of further electoral reforms was set after the 2021 general elections. Some of these reforms already exist in France and performance has relatively been fair. Zambia intends to have Diaspora voting ahead of the next general elections. The move will enable the expats to vote without having to travel back to Zambia, which is costly and time consuming. France implemented the overseas constituencies in 2010 which aimed at enabling representation of French citizens overseas. Should Zambia decide to go ahead with diaspora voting as initially suggested, France would be an ideal example.
Challenges in Electoral Participation
However, the French Republic’s 2021 regional voting was accompanied by a record low turnout. Some inculpated the abstention on the Covid-19 and have advised that France should look at other European countries that have adopted online voting and mail-in. Which is also on the Electoral Commission of Zambia’s agenda (use of new technologies and voter outreach).
Perhaps, the problem of abstention lies not on these factors but elsewhere- None of the Above (NOTA). As Zambia embarks on its electoral reforms, mandatory voting as practised in some countries (mostly European) should be avoided. To increase voter turnout, the Electoral Commission of Zambia should consider including None of the Above (NOTA) on the ballot papers/Electronic Voting Machines for eligible citizens to exercise their right not to vote for any candidate on the ballot paper (if there is no preferred candidate).